We’re 11 days into the Trump Presidency, and the world is pretty much going to hell in a hand basket. Although really, it’s not. It seems like it most days, because the dialogue from the White House (twitter, press conferences, talking heads, etc.) is fast and furious. And of course there are those Executive Orders, with Trump making it clear that he intends to make good on some of his most hollow promises, including building the wall and the Muslim ban. The good news is, it’s not just libs going crazy. Many typically GOP commentators, former politicians, and even current office holders are quite worried and believe the world has gone insane.

Over the past 2-3 days I’ve been in a war with myself over why this is happening. I’m pretty sure that Trump is actually suffering from a narcissistic personality disorder, which is a very bad thing in a President. But on the other side, I realize we will likely never know this for sure. I’m also pretty sure that Steve Bannon is a Machiavelli-wanna-be with delusions of grandeur, now sitting in one of the most powerful seats in the world. It’s hard to tell whether he actually hates pretty much anyone who isn’t his type of white person (blacks, hispanics, asians, muslims and jews are all on list!), but he and his media outlets certainly make it sound that way. Kellyanne Conway is a blatant liar who is so annoying that she must be evil. And poor Sean Spicer and Reince Prebus are doing the nasty work of rationalizing Trump’s tweets and throw away comments day in and day out. I see all of this, but what does it mean?

Then yesterday, I applied Occam’s Razor, and getting a close shave made me feel a little better, and perhaps returned a bit of realism to my point of view. What is the most likely thing that is happening here? Are we on our way down the road to autocracy? Are these “shock events” setting us up for the big takeover? Will democracy die to the thunderous applause of the Imperial Senate?

My answer: it seems much more likely that ignorance (willful or not) and incompetence on the part of Trump and the White House are responsible for what we are seeing the last 10 days. I’m not saying their motives are pure — and in fact, their motives probably added significantly to the mess that is going on.

My arguments — a short synopsis of what we know about Trump and Bannon:

  • Trump is a real estate and media mogul, who got rich in real estate and is great at self-aggrandizing and marketing. These are his strengths.
  • Trump ran his own company, and didn’t have to answer to anyone. He has a corporate mentality to management, which is often autocratic. Companies aren’t democracies, and when you own the company and run it, you can rule as you like. Worst case scenarios: people quit, you fire them, they sue you (and you settle), or you go bankrupt and reorganize.
  • Trump has never shown public proficiency outside of real estate and self-marketing (including the reality show). Other things that he’s tried — steaks, vodka, education, casinos — have gone down the tubes, sometimes quietly and sometimes spectacularly, often costing others jobs and wealth while he does fine.
  • And now he brings his business qualities to the federal government, where the best presidents are the ultimate servants of the people, not the masters.
  • Assuming Steve Bannon is the primary Trump Whisperer (this seems likely), he has similar personal and business qualities. Except for Bannon, we can add in something between disdain and hatred for people of other races, sexes, colors and creeds. His media empire and what we know of his personal life show this. He does seem to be an equal-opportunity hater though, in that he has disdain for blacks, hispanics, muslims, jews and asians, among others.

And what do we know about the Federal government:

  • it’s a big, complicated beast that is VERY hard to move, and VERY set in its ways. Trump campaigned to upset those ways as an outsider, but that was among his most hollow of promises.
  • there are policies, procedures and bureaucracies in place that EVERYONE in Washington expects you to follow. And when you don’t, it causes problems. Do some of these need to change? Absolutely. But ignoring them is not the way to change them.

Enter the Trump White House. These people pretty clearly have no idea how the Federal government works, or those who do (Pence in particular) are being ignored. Or perhaps are playing a long game behind the scenes, but that’s not translating in to short term results. This began with a completely messed up transition, missing opportunities to set up staff to meet with and learn from Obama’s people. That wasn’t a partisan thing — we’re very good at getting past the partisanship when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the White House, and there is zero reason to believe that Obama’s people weren’t ready to help as much as possible. But the transistion team on Trump’s side appeared late or not at all in many cases. Trump has woefully few of his own people in place, took way too long to appoint people at all levels, and picked people who were guaranteed a long vetting process because of their complicated private lives and investments. History books will likely write that Trump’s people fought the transition process, instead of benefiting from it. He/they knew better.

And his first 10 days in office have been no different. When the President uses words, people listen. So those 3am tweets took on new meaning once Trump was in office. They didn’t just rile up the press and the libs, they riled up members of Congress, governors, and leaders of other countries. We knew he was likely to govern through tweets, but that doesn’t make it any smarter to do so. Good presidents are CAREFUL with their words in public, not cavalier.

What about the Executive Orders? I believe Occam’s Razor suggests, from what we know, that a few things are happening here. First, Trump is racing to fulfill some of his most hollow campaign promises on immigration, the wall, and those oh-so-dangerous Muslims that he kept talking about on the campaign trail. And as a leader, he doesn’t need input to do this, so he and his closest advisors, none of whom have been in government or understand the process, write down a bunch of words. They don’t vet  them with the legal experts. Or the financial experts. Or the foreign policy experts. Or any experts at all. Because they know the answers. And these are the best answers. As in any good corporation, the people following you can go along, or be fired. This is a bit glib, but it also describes the attitude of the person known as the Donald from the facts above. He IS used to living as an autocrat. And the Presidency is going to be a big change for him, if he ever adapts. The fact that the people around him also don’t know any better, or can’t/won’t control him, is more than a bit scary. But we don’t have a lot of evidence that it is based on some vast conspiracy.

Could a Trumpian conspiracy, run either by Trump, Bannon, Pence, Paul Ryan, or a mysterious figure(s) in the background (Koch brothers anyone?) actually exist? Yes, it could. And there are small amounts of evidence to suggest this. We know that Trump would prefer to be an autocrat — there’s very little doubt there. They could absolutely be doing all of these things to distract us from whatever their real plan is. btw, these things are VERY distracting. I’ve written about that several times already. But is it purposeful distraction? I don’t see the evidence yet. Are they taking advantage of the distractions? I’m not sure on that one, but there’s not a lot of evidence there either. This is absolutely a concern though, and one of many places where we need to stay vigilant.

If you are still worried, that’s a GOOD thing. What we also know is that the policies Trump is advocating and trying to push forward so far could be quite dangerous for our country, and have already done not-insignificant damage. Real human beings are being harmed by these policies, and more will be harmed in the future. I’ve lost count of the number of people with friends or relatives abroad, or thinking about traveling, who have asked me in just the last 24 hours how this might effect them. Our reputation among our allies was severely hurt over the last few days with the refugee/immigration ban, and according to a variety of GOP lawmakers and conservative commentators (not even worth mentioning the libs!), the Executive Order likely gave ammunition to ISIS and other enemies. There is an enormous amount of real and potential danger here. And yes, in the worst case scenarios some of these things could certainly harm our democracy and our democratic principles. There’s bad stuff brewing, and we MUST stay vigilant and be ACTIVE as new issues arise. I’m very pleased though that a LOT more people, old and young, are becoming politically active. We need to be ready to stay that way over the course of this administration.

But as to “why” this is happening:

Do you really think Trump or Bannon are smart and experienced enough to have a long-game, extremely detailed conspiracy already in place? Just because they want to doesn’t mean they are ready to, or that they can.

The most likely answer behind much of the first 10 days is that Trump and his closest advisors are ignorant of how things are done in Federal government and in the White House. And they are, at least currently, incompetent at their jobs. Ok, and they’re arrogant too. And quite unlikable, especially if you didn’t like him from the start. But let’s try not to read too much into it.