We are now in the Trumpian Era. Some of us are still in shock and disbelief. Others are adjusting to a new state of constant political battles. Some are deliriously happy that the liberals are getting what they deserve, and the establishment is being pulled down. And some really don’t know what to think — they are quiet. Maybe they voted for Trump, but now that he’s in office they are watching and waiting. This post is addressed to all of the above, but really to the first two groups.

I want to recommend that for those who oppose Trump and his tweets/policies, we need to not just bounce from one crisis to the next imperial fiat. We also need to look at the long game. This can be VERY hard when big news hits (like a Supreme Court nomination), harm is being done (like the refugee Exec Order), or long-term problems are being created (like some of the cabinet picks who may destroy the departments they are set to lead.) But you can bet that others have the long-game in view, and if we don’t focus on it, there will be problems down the road.

First, let’s deal with the shock, disbelief and rage. This is going out to some of my closest friends: please get over it and focus on the future, not the past. This by no means includes giving up, but rather focusing on the new fight now that the reality has changed. In particular, I want to encourage people in the rage boat to stop playing the blame game on what happened in the past. If we keep blaming Hillary, or Bernie, or the Russians, or the people who voted for Trump, then we will get stuck in the past, and won’t be able to win the future. On Hillary (and Bernie for some) — mistakes were made. The election was lost. We need to LEARN from that (the hard and easy lessons), and figure out how to take back those votes the next time. Personally, I think it’s still “the economy, stupid,” but more on that in another post. The Russians? We absolutely need an investigation into how much they influenced the election, not as sour grapes, but to prevent this kind of influence in the future. Our system doesn’t include “backsies” on elections, so there’s little we can do on the past.

Trump voters are a special case for me, and I’ve been giving it a lot of thought lately. I would like to suggest that the WORST thing we can do moving forward is to blame them. Rather we should blame ourselves and liberal politicians for not trying harder to understand them. What does that mean? One of the things GOP voters (rural and post-industrial) hate the most is being called names. Racist. Bigoted. Sexist. Does anyone like that? And when you call someone that, has that EVER been a way to get them to change??? (“You are RACIST!!!!” response: “oh wow, I didn’t realize that. Thanks for pointing it out. I’ll change now.”) It doesn’t work that way. You are entitled to believe that someone is racist because they supported Trump, but it is both not helpful to state this, and consider that you are probably wrong. There can be many reasons to support someone who might be racist. Please note though, that the news some of the country was hearing included the idea that those calling Trump racist/sexist, etc were lying. And that Hillary was a lying liar. And they believed that news, and didn’t look past the sources. So perhaps we might want to find better ways to disseminate more information, rather than calling names. Or better ways to appeal to the needs, wants and desires of these voters. Or to shape those needs/wants/desires  — the GOP has spent a LONG time working on framing/shaping political debate, and they’ve been very successful at it. It’s time to wake up and take back the frame.

And then there are current politics. We need to fight Trump on some of the Cabinet picks, but remember that fighting on all is ridiculous because most will get through. We need to fight him if his Supreme Court pick will do long-term damage. But if that pick is also likely to win confirmation, we might want to decide how much political capital we spend there. What if using too much pushes the GOP Senate to go nuclear? Then if another justice leaves during Trump’s term, all bets are off and the Court turns FOR OUR LIFETIMES.

What I am hearing though is that the Dem base is PISSED, and is pushing hard for Dem politicians to DO SOMETHING!!! Please note that this is a piece of the mentality that brought us Trump in the first place, and it is not productive for the short or long term. And acting out of anger rarely gets the results that you want.

So should Dems filibuster any Supreme Court nominee as payback for not allowing a vote on Merrick Garland to come to the floor? No, they shouldn’t. That would be a horrible reason. They MIGHT still want to filibuster if it makes sense as a tactic in the current political environment, and if it helps to achieve long-term goals. But doing it as payback is both silly and possibly counter-productive. If they’re going to do it, it should be for a forward-thinking reason.

Long-term, I suggest that liberals (including the Dem party, which is clearly insufficiently liberal for me, but that could change) need to look at the following issues:

  1. 2017-18 Governor races. There are 37 governors races in the next two years, and the GOP currently holds 27 of those seats. This is a HUGE opportunity for liberals to make changes at a very basic level. The GOP is in control of Congress in no small part because they have played a good long game and control a majority of states. This both gives them a better political base in elections, but more importantly let’s them have a stronger hand in setting up Congressional districts when those come up to be redrawn. Gaining seats here would be a big win, and a good sign for the future.
  2. 2018 Congressional races. The entire House is up in 2018, along with 33 Senate seats. The Dems have 23 of those Senate seats, which could make them more vulnerable to flipping, and only allows for slight gains out of the 10 GOP seats. Picking up 3 seats is CRITICAL to stopping an extreme conservative agenda (or Trumpian agenda, who knows if he’ll really be conservative next week?)
  3. The 2020 Presidential election. Liberals and Dems need to start working NOW to fix the things that went wrong in 2016. First of course is getting back the 3 states that turned the election, but it goes much deeper than that. People in poor economic conditions in the South and in post-industrial areas SHOULD be ripe for a liberal economic agenda, but GOP/conservative framing has placed a conservative social agenda as the leading issue to these groups, and has effectively demonized both government and liberals in general. Acting like demons and calling people names isn’t the way around this. It is important to show people that you do not fit the stereotypes they’ve been shown, and then start to listen to their issues before responding in language that resonates with them. This is going to be the key for the future. It doesn’t mean avoiding identity politics, but it does mean changing them, and including rural/post-industrial identities into the liberal camp.
  4. The Supreme Court. This one is still key to me for the future. Trump is very likely to get one justice, and we need to decide if Gorsuch is more or less offensive than other possible candidates. And then we need to keep sending all of the older justices lots of health food, good thoughts, prayers or whatever in the hopes that they will stay alive and on the bench until either the Senate goes back to the Dems, or the Presidency changes. It’s likely we’re going to go back to a 5-4 conservative court, but with a justice who is not as verbose and extreme as Scalia (since really, is there anyone who could outdo him on those traits?) But a 6-3 court would change things for generations. And a lot of positive change has happened through the courts interpreting human rights in a 21st Century context, and this will likely continue into the future.

So please continue to rage and vent to your friends. But more importantly, continue to take positive action. Protests, calls, spreading information, and letting people know that there is a BIG group of active, liberal people out there is a great thing. Let’s remember though that if we demonize the other side by calling names or making demonic assumptions, we are cutting out possible allies in the future, and making things harder for ourselves. And let’s remember that this is still politics, and the smart politician has both a good short-game, and a better long-game.